BBC NEWS Americas Honduras rivals back peace moves
Source: news.bbc.co.uk
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the announcement in Washington after meeting ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya.
THE CONFLICT MONITOR: Here is what we have in this conflict so far:
The President of the Honduras, used (for some abusing) his mandate from the last elections to overpower the senate and congress in running a referendum on extending his right to run for one more election,
The local elites and the army arrested President Zelaya and, in his night robe, sent him into exile. At the same time, the arrested and froze all media in favor of the President and promoted the (generally now accepted) impression that he was by far “very unpopular.”
At the wake of a possible return to the dark days of the Cold War coup-routine era in Latin America, the OAS and the US together with the UN reacted strongly in restoring President Zelaya's legitimacy by ordering the rulers of the coup to allow him to return. This was a good idea in that the institution of the President who represents the will of the people (him being unpopular or not) was now restored in the face of the global community.
On the other hand, it increased the domestic leverage of the coup folks in the Honduras by creating a counter asymmetry... the world against Honduras... and by setting themselves to assume the role of defenders against "foreign powers."
As if that wasn't enough the General Secretary of the OAS, by visiting Tegucigalpa sent, and even though he didn't meet with the coupc leaders, he still delivevred a mixed message – combining a severe condemnation with his visit in the Capitol. At this point, had there been another more neutral mediator the conflict might have been put at a more tractable path. However, that visit created the impression among the coup leaders that they might after all get away with it.
Immediately after the failure of the General Secretary to produce results, President Zelaya with the backing of the international community, and escorted by a group of high level dignitaries, flew towards Tegucigalpa international airport expecting that seas of people would clear the runway for his plane to land against a weak and ready to defect army. Of course this did not work, as expected… The coup strengthened their grip of control over the army and fired against the demonstrators killing at least two while the Learjet with President Zelaya aboard was circling over the runway like a hustler looking for a his golden chance.
It never came. President Zelaya flew back to Washington DC sharing his embarrassment with the international community.
At this point keep in mind... he PERSONALLY remains even today the ONLY LEGITIMATE HONDURAN CITIZEN as the state of Honduras is a subject to collective punishment as a means to turn the tide over and against the coup; a coup which now has established that the army is on their side and that they can stand as Hondurans against any hostile international environment!
So here we are experiencing the worse nightmare of a conflict resolution analyst, two parties perceiving themselves to be able to win over the other. So here we have the pick of a crisis and at this moment only mediation can assist in communicating to the parties the erroneous of their perception that they can win as in fact, considering that the Honduras is the third poorest country in the Americas, its expulsion and economic sanctions against it would only mean a disaster for all Hondurans including political bosses, elected and otherwise.
The outcome of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias' mediation is not guaranteed and a lot depends on how much damage has already been done. He has some rats and some aces in his pocket including the following:
On the positive side:
If communicated clearly both parties will realize that they are about to fall victims of a problem which will take them and the country back to the stone ages (see Haiti)
The crisis in the Honduras is a constitutional crisis one which can be handled through an effective problem-solving debate between constitutional lawyers under arbitration if necessary. Even though the crisis became contaminated towards the intractable due to the use of force, the abuse of institutions of power, the death of two Honduran citizens and severe ideological differences, the fact remains that something went wrong in how the constitution was communicated and applied by the parties. That leaves space for so-called principled negotiations, with the constitution itself the objective reference to resolving this smoothly.
President Zelaya's term ends this November... which means that expedited elections would not be such an extreme measure at the moment. A short term emergency unity government would do in running those elections smoothly.
Challenges include the following:
The return of President Zelaya as a President and/or as Honduran citizen - is the only way for Honduras to restore itself as a legitimate member of the international community. And it is up to President Zelaya how far he may concede in distancing himself from the title to make it possible to return at the moment but the Presidency and the person have to return to the Honduras. This of course contradicts the competing narrative that he is a criminal in exile and that his return would only mean the de-legitimization and criminalization of those running the coup. To the degree to which those forces enacted the will of the congress and the senate - plus the army, they coup leaders perceive themselves as instruments of the will of the people. And the return of President Zelaya will only mean their own criminalization and exile either they actually leave the country physically or not.
There are also issues of criminal conduct by the army and even murders committed that have to be served by justice and/or mitigated through processes which will promote justice and reconciliation at the same time.
These two issues, put in perspective are not as difficult to address especially since there hasn’t been a civil war put into progress yet. President Arias has to put together in a room constitutional lawyers, representatives of the office of the President in exile and of the coup leaders, and good conflict resolution practitioners to produce a comprehensive emergency resolution which would see to the return of the President (as an institution and/or as a citizen) the formation of an emergency unity government to prepare the country for expedited elections, and the development of one or more committees which will address the issues of recovery and reconciliation as well as the healing of the societal, structural, economic, and personal trauma caused due to this ordeal both in the Honduras and internationally.
Such a task as difficult as it may appear put in perspective and compared to processes addressing say the Palestinian - Israeli conflict, Cyprus, or the Northern Ireland conflict are textboook negotiations and they should go smooth and easy.
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