<?xml version='1.0' encoding='UTF-8'?><?xml-stylesheet href="http://www.blogger.com/styles/atom.css" type="text/css"?><feed xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom' xmlns:openSearch='http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/' xmlns:georss='http://www.georss.org/georss' xmlns:gd='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005' xmlns:thr='http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0'><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778</id><updated>2011-11-27T15:20:11.418-08:00</updated><title type='text'>THE CONFLICT MONITOR</title><subtitle type='html'>...conflict follow up and analysis in action...</subtitle><link rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default?max-results=100'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/'/><link rel='hub' href='http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><generator version='7.00' uri='http://www.blogger.com'>Blogger</generator><openSearch:totalResults>26</openSearch:totalResults><openSearch:startIndex>1</openSearch:startIndex><openSearch:itemsPerPage>100</openSearch:itemsPerPage><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-968190355347335463</id><published>2010-12-27T22:57:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-27T22:57:28.842-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM INDIA...</title><content type='html'>Assam rebel chief's 'abducted' son is freedBy Subir Bhaumik&lt;br /&gt;27 December 2010&lt;br /&gt;BBC News, Calcutta&lt;br /&gt;By Subir Bhaumik&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="caption"&gt;&lt;img alt="Paresh Barua" height="200" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50555000/jpg/_50555655__46890119_pareshbarua226-1.jpg" width="149" /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Mr Barua has opposed talks with India An Indian separatist group says the son of its military wing chief, who was kidnapped in Bangladesh, has now been released. Paresh Barua, senior United Liberation Front of Assam (Ulfa) leader, alleged last week that his teenaged son Arindam Barua had been abducted. The kidnappers were putting pressure on him to negotiate with India, he said. From, and more at...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12081940"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12081940&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-968190355347335463?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/968190355347335463/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-india.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/968190355347335463'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/968190355347335463'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-india.html' title='FROM INDIA...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-5103458294288475351</id><published>2010-12-17T23:14:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-17T23:14:51.577-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM COLOMBIA...</title><content type='html'>Colombia army gives Farc rebels early Christmas gift&lt;br /&gt;BBC WORLD NEWS&lt;br /&gt;17 December 2010 at 21:11 ET&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img alt="Christmas tree in Bogota's central square" height="171" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50480000/jpg/_50480809_010807079-1.jpg" width="304" /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;The Colombian army says it has installed a giant Christmas tree in Farc rebel territory, to encourage guerrilla fighters to demobilize.... From and more at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12025086"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12025086&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: &lt;br /&gt;As pathetic and&amp;nbsp;tasteless.&amp;nbsp;and&amp;nbsp;as against&amp;nbsp;the spirit of Christmas at&amp;nbsp;one can be...&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-5103458294288475351?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/5103458294288475351/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia_17.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/5103458294288475351'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/5103458294288475351'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia_17.html' title='FROM COLOMBIA...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-4098364840419989970</id><published>2010-12-14T22:46:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-14T22:46:56.947-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM COLOMBIA...</title><content type='html'>US court indicts Dutch Farc rebel Tanja Nijmeijer&lt;br /&gt;BBC WORLD NEWS&lt;br /&gt;14 December 2010 Last updated at 19:32 ET&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="caption body-narrow-width"&gt;&lt;img alt="Tanja Nijmeijer" height="171" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50430000/jpg/_50430348_tanjaap.jpg" width="304" /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;A US court has indicted a Dutch member of the Colombian Farc rebel group on kidnapping charges.&lt;br /&gt;In an interview for Radio Netherlands recorded in August 2010, she said she would fight until victory or death. She also warned the Colombian authorities that if they tried to rescue her she would "meet them with machine guns, mines and mortars". "I am proud to be a guerrilla and to be able to work together with the Colombian people and the other guerrillas, to take power and proclaim the revolution," she told Colombian journalist Jorge Enrique Botero in Spanish during the interview in the jungle. From and more at: &lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11996770"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11996770&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-4098364840419989970?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/4098364840419989970/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia_14.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/4098364840419989970'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/4098364840419989970'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia_14.html' title='FROM COLOMBIA...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-2026652347758825146</id><published>2010-12-14T22:42:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-14T22:42:04.095-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM PALESTINE...</title><content type='html'>Hamas holds massive Gaza rally&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div style="float: left; width: 50px;"&gt;Source: &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style="float: left;"&gt;Al Jazeera and agencies&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;14 Dec 2010 17:33 GMT&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQhi_2VpmiI/AAAAAAAAADM/y7tcAbjfFDc/s1600/20101214144059255427_20%255B1%255D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"&gt;&lt;img border="0" height="212" n4="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQhi_2VpmiI/AAAAAAAAADM/y7tcAbjfFDc/s320/20101214144059255427_20%255B1%255D.jpg" width="320" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Resistance group throws 23rd anniversary rally, as tight Israeli siege makes Gaza's Hamas rulers increasingly unpopular. From and more at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/12/20101214135412759764.html"&gt;http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/12/20101214135412759764.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-2026652347758825146?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/2026652347758825146/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-palestine.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2026652347758825146'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2026652347758825146'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-palestine.html' title='FROM PALESTINE...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQhi_2VpmiI/AAAAAAAAADM/y7tcAbjfFDc/s72-c/20101214144059255427_20%255B1%255D.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-3192870201991261102</id><published>2010-12-13T12:09:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-13T12:23:47.104-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM NIGERIA...</title><content type='html'>WikiLeaks exposes Shell's infiltration of Nigeria's government &lt;br /&gt;by the DEUTSCHE WELLE&lt;br /&gt;Africa 13.12.2010&lt;br /&gt;Author: Nick Amies, Editor: Rob Mudge&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;img alt="Nuon Chea (l) and Cambodian journalist Thet Sambath (r)" height="294" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQaAJtooxDI/AAAAAAAAADI/E2ur-9cHgz0/s320/DW.jpg" width="320" /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;The recent WikiLeaks revelations have exposed the high level of influence, infiltration and intelligence-gathering that global oil companies have in resource-rich nations in Africa, specifically Shell's role in Nigeria. More and from ...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6322658,00.html"&gt;http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6322658,00.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-3192870201991261102?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/3192870201991261102/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-nigeria.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3192870201991261102'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3192870201991261102'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-nigeria.html' title='FROM NIGERIA...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQaAJtooxDI/AAAAAAAAADI/E2ur-9cHgz0/s72-c/DW.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-8279495079157317623</id><published>2010-12-12T16:07:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-12T16:07:07.171-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM CAMBODIA</title><content type='html'>&amp;nbsp;Perpetrator's perspective: Befriending the Khmer Rouge &lt;br /&gt;11 December 2010 Last updated at 20:48 ET&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="caption body-narrow-width"&gt;&lt;img alt="Nuon Chea (l) and Cambodian journalist Thet Sambath (r)" height="171" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50385000/jpg/_50385018_enemiesstills003.jpg" width="304" /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;Cambodian journalist and film-maker Theh Sambath lost most of his family under the brutal Khmer Rouge regime of the 1970s. He explains how his search for the truth led him to form an unlikely bond with one of the most loathed men in his country - Nuon Chea, number two within the Khmer Rouge regime. More from and by the BBC NEWS at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11968144"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11968144&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-8279495079157317623?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/8279495079157317623/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-cambodia.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8279495079157317623'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8279495079157317623'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-cambodia.html' title='FROM CAMBODIA'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-911965593459224953</id><published>2010-12-09T14:43:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-09T14:43:35.639-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM THE WWW FRONT</title><content type='html'>A global electronic insurgency is shaping up.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Operation:Payback broadens to “Operation Avenge Assange”&lt;br /&gt;on 12/6/10 by Sean-Paul Correll &lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQFa0sfHNgI/AAAAAAAAAC8/ZZsH3UB-7ok/s1600/panda.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"&gt;&lt;img border="0" height="50" n4="true" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQFa0sfHNgI/AAAAAAAAAC8/ZZsH3UB-7ok/s320/panda.jpg" width="320" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The organizers behind the anonymous group responsible for Operation:Payback are in the midst of refocusing their campaign to assist WikiLeaks in their quest to release classified government documents. more at PANDALABS BLOG AT:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://pandalabs.pandasecurity.com/operationpayback-broadens-to-operation-avenge-assange/"&gt;http://pandalabs.pandasecurity.com/operationpayback-broadens-to-operation-avenge-assange/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;for Anonymous Manifesto at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://pandalabs.pandasecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/4.png"&gt;http://pandalabs.pandasecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/4.png&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-911965593459224953?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/911965593459224953/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-www-front.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/911965593459224953'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/911965593459224953'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-www-front.html' title='FROM THE WWW FRONT'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TQFa0sfHNgI/AAAAAAAAAC8/ZZsH3UB-7ok/s72-c/panda.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-3571929310377914245</id><published>2010-12-08T22:35:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-08T22:35:00.833-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM COLOMBIA</title><content type='html'>Cables: Colombia's Uribe reached out to FARC &lt;br /&gt;Dec 8, 11:04 PM EST&lt;br /&gt;By VIVIAN SEQUERA &lt;br /&gt;&lt;div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://hosted.ap.org/templates/AP/data/logo.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"&gt;&lt;img alt="" border="0" height="49" src="http://hosted.ap.org/templates/AP/data/logo.gif" width="200" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Associated Press&lt;br /&gt;BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) -- Former President Alvaro Uribe sought secret talks during his second term with Colombia's main leftist rebel group in Switzerland, and the guerrillas even reached out to the U.S. Embassy, according to leaked U.S. diplomatic cables. From and more at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_WIKILEAKS_COLOMBIA?SITE=AP&amp;amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;amp;CTIME=2010-12-08-23-04-00"&gt;http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_WIKILEAKS_COLOMBIA?SITE=AP&amp;amp;SECTION=HOME&amp;amp;TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&amp;amp;CTIME=2010-12-08-23-04-00&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-3571929310377914245?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/3571929310377914245/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia.html#comment-form' title='2 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3571929310377914245'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3571929310377914245'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-colombia.html' title='FROM COLOMBIA'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>2</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-2681290356587654078</id><published>2010-12-08T21:09:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-08T21:13:41.348-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM THE PHILIPPINES</title><content type='html'>Negotiating peace with the Philippine MILF&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;By Kate McGeown&lt;br /&gt;6 December 2010 Last updated at 19:39 ET&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div class="caption body-narrow-width"&gt;&lt;img alt="MILF rebel" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50306000/jpg/_50306453_milfsolider2.jpg" width="304" height="171" /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BBC News, Mindanao&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"We have some concerns about Othman Abdul Razak," she said, confirming media speculation that the government had requested a new Malaysian facilitator for the talks, due to a belief that Mr Othman was not neutral.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On the surface, the inclusion or otherwise of one person in the talks process might seem like a relatively small obstacle - but as both sides know to their cost, if the details are not fully agreed by everyone, a deal could easily slip through their fingers. From and by the BBC NEWS at:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11925641"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11925641&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-2681290356587654078?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/2681290356587654078/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-philippines.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2681290356587654078'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2681290356587654078'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-philippines.html' title='FROM THE PHILIPPINES'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-3823213676890812022</id><published>2010-12-08T21:03:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-08T21:06:27.396-08:00</updated><title type='text'>FROM LEBANON</title><content type='html'>UN declares ceasefire in Lebanon&lt;br /&gt;From www.chinaview.cn 2006-05-29 07:43:19&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img src="http://imgs.xinhuanet.com/icon/2007english/0810/logo.jpg" width="114" height="107" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BEIRUT, May 28 (Xinhua) -- The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon managed to broker a ceasefire on Sunday between Israel and militants in Lebanon following fierce clashes along the border, Lebanese National News Agency reported. From and more by&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/29/content_4613370.htm"&gt;http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-05/29/content_4613370.htm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-3823213676890812022?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/3823213676890812022/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-lebanon.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3823213676890812022'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3823213676890812022'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/from-lebanon.html' title='FROM LEBANON'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-2442305250668844315</id><published>2010-12-08T20:52:00.000-08:00</published><updated>2010-12-08T20:59:00.075-08:00</updated><title type='text'>EU Force: Somali pirates cannot be stopped by force</title><content type='html'>FROM THE PIRACY FRONT...&lt;br /&gt;8 December 2010 Last updated at 05:36&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 144px; HEIGHT: 103px" alt="Crew of a suspect skiff boarding on the coast of Somalia (Dutch Navy picture, released 24 November 2010)" src="http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50343000/jpg/_50343294_010714858-1.jpg" width="304" height="171" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;EU Force: Somali pirates cannot be stopped by force&lt;br /&gt;Pirates operating off the Somali coast will not be defeated by force alone, a top European naval officer says. "It is arguable how much of a deterrent effect counter-piracy forces are having," Thomas Ernst from the EU's anti-piracy task force Navfor said. This and more from BBC NEWS:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11947331"&gt;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11947331&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-2442305250668844315?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/2442305250668844315/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-force-somali-pirates-cannot-be.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2442305250668844315'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2442305250668844315'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/12/eu-force-somali-pirates-cannot-be.html' title='EU Force: Somali pirates cannot be stopped by force'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-1678092050361354469</id><published>2010-08-09T14:04:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2010-08-10T13:12:49.248-07:00</updated><title type='text'>Bush Doctrine Hangover… A New Headache for Peace builders…</title><content type='html'>THE CONFLICT MONITOR:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TGBvk4Np5lI/AAAAAAAAACs/cPGLKlUW1Mc/s1600/hangover_copy.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 184px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 109px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5503521424002377298" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TGBvk4Np5lI/AAAAAAAAACs/cPGLKlUW1Mc/s400/hangover_copy.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;Two years into Barak Obama’s administration and the consequences of the G W Bush era are felt as a heavy shadow over almost every aspect of the foreign policy of the new administration. As the Obama’ doctrine is shaping up the “war on terror,” Iraq, the nuclear threat from N. Korea and Iran, and the system of rendition and Guantanamo continue as if at their own separate pace.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So what is the Bush doctrine? Where does it come from and how more difficult has it made it to resolve crises such as the 2008 war between Israel and Lebanon or long term conflicts such as those in the Middle East or in Colombia?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Bush Doctrine is not a parentless child.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;When back in 1823 U.S. President James Monroe declared that the American continent was now a territory outside the influence of European colonial powers, the US was celebrated as a protector of the sovereignty of its neighboring nations. President Roosevelt’s Amendment to the Monroe Doctrine later in 1904 broadened the role of the United States in Latin America as a territory exclusive to the US in expanding its commercial interests, lifting off the US economic and military hegemony in the region. President Truman’s doctrine in 1947 came right after the end of WWII in order to prevent the expansion of the Soviet Union in Greece and Turkey. Truman declared that the US would provide assistance and equipment to any country resisting communism. As a result not only Greece and Turkey but also other European governments such as in Italy, and France received millions of dollars in their effort to defeat emerging communist movements. By 1957 the Cold War was expanding into new territories opened as a result of the British and French withdrawal from the Middle East and Indochina. President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s Doctrine saw that the US would commit military and economic power to any government requesting help in fighting communism. John F. Kennedy’s 1961 doctrine included a further containment and even reversal of communism in allied countries. Lyndon B. Johnson’s doctrine in 1965 considered even domestic rebellions in the western hemisphere as attempts for establishing a global “communist dictatorship.” Richard Nixon in 1989 asserted that the US would provide shield for allies threatened by a nuclear power, and also military and economic assistance for regional powers so that they would enforce security in their respective regions. Jimmy Carter later declared that use of military force would be justified to anyone who might try to gain control of the Persian Gulf region. Ronald Reagan’s doctrine openly justified, all the way to the end of the Cold War, the use of US allied rebel groups against communist regimes or counter to communist insurgents around the world. Bill Clinton’s interventionism doctrine was initially reduced only to conflicts and crises that threatened the US interest, to incorporate later cases of genocide.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Child&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Bush administration arrived determined to implement the neo-conservative mandate for establishing a world of democracies that would be stabilized and secured through economic interdependence. The events of 9/11 accelerated the implementation of the mandate with the declaration of the Bush doctrine. Where the Cold War had at its core the policy of nuclear deterrence, the post-cold war started with Clinton’s interventionism doctrine and now was about to enter the US era of preemption. The Bush doctrine introduces two conceptual radical ideas: first that there is no difference between so-called terrorists and those forces who support them; second that the US preserves the right to strike preemptively against emerging threats. The first drove directly to the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan and the second to the occupation of Iraq in search of weapons of mass destruction allegedly hidden by the Saddam Hussein regime to be used against the US. In their totality the Bush administration policies were grouped up as the “War on Terror.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A legalistic maze&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Backed by legislation with most prominent the “Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act of 2001” (USA PATRIOT Act) the Bush Doctrine was and is founded on a concept which according to the State department “no one definition of terrorism has gained universal acceptance.” The chosen definition for most of the legal applications of the term [Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f(d)] defines terrorism as “premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On June 21st 2010 the US Supreme Court upheld a federal law that makes it a crime to provide any support to a terrorist organization — even when that support is specifically to promote resolving disputes peacefully. The “material support law” was first enacted under Clinton’s administration and after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 it makes it a crime punishable by 15 years in prison to “provide any assistance, advice, training or expertise to any group designated by the secretary of state as a foreign terrorist organization.” Even though the full interpretation of the latest ruling is pending, the divided by 6/3 votes Supreme Court sees any form or magnitude of material support to be a crime even if it is to strengthen the capacity of such groups to negotiate peace. Georgetown Law School professor David Cole said "The bottom line is that the court has now said that the First Amendment permits Congress to make human-rights advocacy and peacemaking into a terrorist crime."&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Implications to Peacebuilding&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The implications of such legal environment against a speedy resolution of crises involving “terrorist organizations” such as Hezbollah during the 2006 war with Israel or cases such as the FARC-EP and ELN in Colombia, ETA in Spain, the PKK in Turkey, and so on, are already felt in the field of peace studies and peace building. To begin with it is now impossible to even study first hand those groups as any form of communication and or association may be considered criminalized. Considering the millions of dollars and lives lost in fighting against such groups one would assume that studying them vigorously and from all angles would be the preferred way to go.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Another important issue is that in cases of insurgent groups with broad popular support such as Hamas, the PKK, Hezbollah, the Tamil Tigers and others all of those who are ruled by such groups or depend on them, in the absence of humanitarian support, will have more reasons to join the insurgencies than less.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the case of the Israel Hezbollah war in 2006 and as a consequence of the environment of fear of being associated with a terrorist organization, most of the previously open channels of communication that might have stopped the destruction of Lebanon were cut off and the first meeting took place after invitation of the Secretary then of the US State Department Condoleezza Rice after weeks of war, in Rome and with the absence of members of Hezbollah itself. The terms and agreements for exchange of bodies and prisoners took place after most of the damage was completed. It was a good example of how the war on terror has reduced our capacity to rapidly respond through non-governmental channels to stop a crisis. The old days, it might have taken a phone call to put some sense to the parties in conflict. Today that phone call might be considered a criminal act.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In this environment there is a strong emphasis on counterinsurgency and the military option as the only solution to terrorism. Even though the use of force has it place in the way to the solution, most of the examples used to promote such approach include cases that either failed in the long run (Algeria, Peru, and probably Sri Lanka) or cases where the “solution” was followed by decades of unstable regimes such as in the Philippines and Greece. The only successful cases where the war ended after the conflict reached a stalemate were those resolved through successful negotiations; negotiations which produced sustainable and wise agreements such as in South Africa, Northern Ireland, and Nepal. In cases when poor agreements took place such as in Colombia (Patriotic Union) and Israel (Oslo Agreement) or where negotiations keep on failing (Spain, Turkey, Sri Lanka) it is usually because the parties do not carry the capacity to draft an effective solution and the countries are doomed to the continuation of violence and destruction. It is imperative that parties negotiating peace are able and even strong negotiators from both sides if there is a chance for those agreements to work. Depriving international organizations the right to provide trainings and support to those groups at the point when they decide to reach peace can only prolong the war. The State Department list is not a flexible document. Groups are not removed once they declare a ceasefire. They remain there for years after such as Nelson Mandela and the ANC was on until recently, years after the end of the Apartheid.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The logic that the legitimization and strengthen of the political face of terrorists frees resources for them to be even more potent and dangerous is simply false. Most insurgent groups are actually drained to dry when they decide to run into politics. As politics seem to work the insurgents’ constituencies, those populations from which new recruits and materiel comes from, grows more and more supportive to peace instead of the opposite. Strong minds become invested into complex political campaigns and money is diverted from the battlefield to the electoral logistics and party outreach.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;According to Supreme Judge John Roberts even when the terrorists are willing to negotiate NGOs should not prepare them for it as it might upset governments allied to the US. This is an extremely dangerous point. The “war on terror” has become a gold mine for governments that have secured their place as allies to the US cause. What is said here is that even when terrorists are ready to negotiate peace, even when they are ready to end the war, the populations should remain hostages to any government corrupted enough to have chosen not to end the conflict at the expense of the safety and peace of its citizens.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is not easy to point at the Bush doctrine as the source of every current impediment of building peace with insurgent groups from around the world. Yet, the “war on terror” has created a situation where groups which have never attacked the US are considered enemies of the US anyhow. That becomes even more complicated as groups such as the POLISARIO in west Sahara, the Zapatistas, and the Darfur resistance groups are not considered terrorists by the State Department. Even more complicated is the case of groups such as the Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK) in Iran which are on the State Department list yet they are funded and supported frequently by the US Congress and the Department of Defense.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In other words the Bush doctrine and by consequence the “war on terror” based on an ambiguous concept and expanded indefinitely to include no one and everyone has created a legalistic and law enforcement maze, a nightmare for peace practitioners. A new field of study, trying to define itself, the science of peace, is facing its first large challenge at the very conception… Today in Washington DC, words such as terrorists and insurgents are taboo topics for research grantees. No potential sponsor or charity is willing to be considered associated with terrorists by sponsoring a research or a dialogue project that could or might be considered a federal crime. As a result thousands of projects for peace have been cancelled of scrapped from plans, projects which could be building today a more peaceful world even at the midst of war. A huge effort is lead by organizations such as the Alliance for Peacebuilding and the Center for Constitutional Rights struggle to push for a grounded interpretation of the latest challenge by the Supreme Court so that ambiguity is removed or for a new law altogether but a great deal of damage has already been made.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TGBuI3tMOFI/AAAAAAAAACk/xm9Mak58aco/s1600/The+Conflict+Monitor+Bottom+Small.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 272px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 117px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5503519843318249554" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TGBuI3tMOFI/AAAAAAAAACk/xm9Mak58aco/s400/The+Conflict+Monitor+Bottom+Small.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-1678092050361354469?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/1678092050361354469/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/08/bush-doctrine-hangover-new-headache-for.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/1678092050361354469'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/1678092050361354469'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/08/bush-doctrine-hangover-new-headache-for.html' title='Bush Doctrine Hangover… A New Headache for Peace builders…'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TGBvk4Np5lI/AAAAAAAAACs/cPGLKlUW1Mc/s72-c/hangover_copy.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-8972792405636470775</id><published>2010-08-01T23:12:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2010-08-03T15:18:07.762-07:00</updated><title type='text'>NORTHERN IRELAND PROCESS TURNING IN REVERSE?</title><content type='html'>&lt;a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TFZiuY1Z_oI/AAAAAAAAACU/1RsHOvS0pw0/s1600/Irish+times.gif"&gt;&lt;img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 90px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 76px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5500692543959596674" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TFZiuY1Z_oI/AAAAAAAAACU/1RsHOvS0pw0/s400/Irish+times.gif" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0729/1224275693293.html"&gt;CIRA leaders deny ousting claim - The Irish Times - Thu, Jul 29, 2010&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: So... was it a prank, to test or divide the CIRA? Was it a way to provoke “B Ruairc” to a public statement? Or is it true that younger generations are becoming restless as the first dividends of peace were outside their own direct experience and all they've seen is more of the same? I'd say the last is more consistent with the writing on the wall in Belfast and Derry these days. Peace is growing old in NI and it needs some serious facelifting before it will need reviving.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A unified republican front might bring those young folks into politics before they blow up the streets and I think that SDLP is making a huge mistake by placing obstacles. This is not the 1980's for crying out loud.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The CIRA and RIRA are rising out from a well defined growing socioeconomic and political vacuum in NI and Cameron's plan will only make things worse. Not only is he going to dispose of all the benefits that go now to Northern Ireland - see development, water charges etc - but in spite of his NI visit rhetorics he is most likely about to unleash a wave of neoliberal economic treatment on Northern Ireland never to have been seen before! I will set aside for now my full analysis of why this man may be a mild version equivalency to Sarah Palin in the UK... but let us just say for now that he takes history very lightly when putting it in his mouth so far...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;History in Northern Ireland is everything. The whole situation there is nothing but a complex web of reenforcing and contradicting narratives of people who live "together" separated by peace walls and identity and socioecomic bubbles that are constantly at the point of bursting with the slightest provocation. It is a society that is still far too early, far too slow in its healing process which is practiced while sectarian and racist violence is still at large, while even cosignatories to the Good Friday Agreement have not decommissioned fully yet, while every year we face violence over a custom that desperately needs to be self regulated and all this under the shadow of a global economic crisis which the UK has managed so far to protect from the public eye even with the &lt;a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-10671063"&gt;collapse of giants such as Goldtrail &lt;/a&gt;and others. The UK has increasingly more reasons to want NI out... but the combination of similar circumstances with a conservative residing no 10 has never meant good news for Ulster-minus.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There is no doubt that we are facing peace fatigue in Northern Ireland. Very little is done with intercommunal dialogue, in bringing the peace walls down, taming the parade sessions, controlling sectarian and racist violence, concluding the decommissioning process, removing organized crime, and creating a common vision for the young generations to join in. All of those issues are not purely economic but they are core socio-political, and issues of role and identity.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In spite of the generous sacrifices and compromises by the major players in Stormont, peace in Northern Ireland in terms of reconciliation, truth, justice, and mercy, and a sustainable violence-free future seems to be drifting backwards... The institutions of devolution may look good on paper but the degree of success depends more on how effectively and how fast they can contain and reverse the emerging trends in Northern Ireland society. They have to start working and start working fast!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It's always easy to blame Sinn Féin first for anything that work or doesn't work in NI so let me start from expressing my disappointment in that it should at this point be leading the community - from within - towards building the new Northern Ireland instead of relying on the snail slow, financially broke, sabotaged by spoilers Good Friday, St Andrews and the Hillsborough Castle Agreement institutions. As precious as they may be for leveling the legal playground, otherwise, as we all know, they alone are for the looks, and they should be considered as such especially in an environment of scarcity of financial resources and a landscape of partisanship as friendly as a minefield. At this point it is the parties together and from within their communities that need to begin implementing the points of transition and considering the current capacities and long tradition on involving the community from the republican side Sinn Féin has a responsibility to lead. And so it does, only it is time for some serious brainstorming in coming up with ways to get the other side involved.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The party politics on the loyalist camp - with the exception of PUP - are not the same with those on the republican side. The community has never engaged as deep into party politics as the Catholics have and so it was and is with their paramilitaries as well. The loyalist community even today remains within its own bubble, protected and spoiled by handlers and big time orators who have left them believe that they can handle everything without their direct involvement and participation. Party politics in the loyalist community are elite politics and so constituencies are treated as a pool of prey where party and non party powerful organizations such as the Orange Order, and large parts of the DUP feed from without much obligation to reciprocate. Yes, loyalist sometimes do vote and increasingly so and this is always a good sign but beyond that their relationship with their parties are no more. DUP, and UUP are seen just the same as the Orange Order and the paramilitaries, as necessary evils, the security apparatus, that will protect Protestand traditions and the union with the Crown to the end of time. This is an issue which does trouble folks who care to see an active constituency in the loyalist camp such as Jeffrey Donaldson but it has never become the project of the size that it deserves.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Such asymmetry between republican and loyalist party politics not only is not addressed effectively, but what we have - in fact as a result of peace itself - is an increasing disfranchisement of Catholic youth. This is no news by any means for Europe that youth is staying increasingly away from politics but for Northern Ireland the consequences can be devastating. Not participating into main stream politics doesn't mean youth have no political views. On the contrary, in an environment of socioeconomic crisis from which Norther Ireland have never completely emerged, the political self and the willingness to join for a cause are on the rise. When parties do not catch up with trends within the community then it is alternatives to main stream politics that thrive.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The current configuration sees loyalists politically uninvolved - except from contributing to their "handlers" and most republicans still remaining involved with youth - finding politics increasingly boring and unproductive. This system alone can already tell us the future as it balances in favour of republican youth joining or organizing alternatives to politics and loyalists dumping money and support to their handlers as a means of "response."&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is the system that has to change and by all means it is about time for SF to lead the way into remaking politics attractive for republican youth. It is about time for loyalist politicians who are honest with themselves and really care for those they represent to turn for help to those who know, even to republicans, in reshaping Protestand politics; and those should include seasoned republican organizers and members from all sectors of the community Catholic and Protestand.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;This is not a call for hugs and kumbaya. For as long as loyalist voters remain connected to politics only for the day of the year that they have to vote or to go join the parades to stick it to the Catholics, the Republicans will continue to talk and to seek for partners in this peace process among folks who do not understand their language. They remain deaf and blind to the gestures and even sacrifices that republican parties have to offer. Yet what they do relate to is whatever violence or threat of violence is expressed by the republican armed dissidents, the CIRAs and the RIRAs and who know what will come in the next few months even.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p&gt;The process in Northern Ireland have taught us that peace is a hungry beast that it grows more and more hungry as time goes, getting bored and tired of the same recipes... and until it learns how to stand on its own feet it requires more creativity, more ingredients and wilder imagination of the chef's to keep it alive. Time and again it shows that it's ready to go and the Northern Ireland folks have pulled a two decades display of jigs and turns keeping us all at the edge of our seats and in awe with their creativity and self sacrifice. They have fed the monster with foods none of us have ever imagined to even exist! They have stretched every theory and technique in complex negotiations and they have proven to the world that the stereotypes of the warlike Irish folk should be left only for the cheap propaganda leaflets and the staff of dark prejudice. Following this conflict since the early 80's I can testify that I know of very few people on earth that love peace more than the Irish do; including those who consider themselves British. So I have confidence that they'll find their way out. As an expert though I have the responsibility to ring the bell when a pattern seems to emerge and that I just did.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I look forward to see what is next on the peace menu!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Christos&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TFaCCQ5DzFI/AAAAAAAAACc/ZO-XWIHWFh4/s1600/The+Conflict+Monitor+Bottom+Small.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 272px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 117px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5500726970285280338" border="0" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TFaCCQ5DzFI/AAAAAAAAACc/ZO-XWIHWFh4/s400/The+Conflict+Monitor+Bottom+Small.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-8972792405636470775?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/8972792405636470775/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/08/northern-ireland-process-on-reverse.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8972792405636470775'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8972792405636470775'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/08/northern-ireland-process-on-reverse.html' title='NORTHERN IRELAND PROCESS TURNING IN REVERSE?'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TFZiuY1Z_oI/AAAAAAAAACU/1RsHOvS0pw0/s72-c/Irish+times.gif' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-6823102628588544736</id><published>2010-07-18T23:09:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2010-07-19T00:44:20.600-07:00</updated><title type='text'>A NEW BEGINNING...</title><content type='html'>&lt;a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TEPsMr7gsNI/AAAAAAAAAB8/_ihadHnOBwU/s1600/Hermes_World_1.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 133px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 262px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5495495673017053394" border="0" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TEPsMr7gsNI/AAAAAAAAAB8/_ihadHnOBwU/s320/Hermes_World_1.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt; OK Folks, the Conflict Monitor is back and kicking! The Honduras crisis lasted far too long and cost too much in lives and civic liberties than expected. Still things are not certain and I believe the country has fallen into a Supreme Court junta, which will take time to get rid of, heal from, and move on. It is not the only country where the Supreme Court becomes an active player in shaping a country's future... Indeed the US Supreme Court pretty much decided the general elections results that brought G.W.Bush and the neocons in power in 2000. The Spanish courts have destroyed several attempts to end the Basque insurgency, and the Turkish Supreme Courts recently not only blocked the path to a political solution with the PKK but also blocked the whole package for reforms proposed by the Turkish government that would guarantee an entry to the European Union. Only a referendum may save some of those recommendations in September but the point here is... Supreme Courts can be political with capital letters and the problem with them is that they take a long time to reshape... A political Supreme Court can be as menacing as a military junta if it decides to turn political; as they hide behind the very institutional structures intended to guarantee the constitutionality of the law turning the constitution, the supreme, permanent law of the land into a playground for streetfight politics. It is in my opinion a sign of corruption along with the corruption of the press and that of the politicians in every other level that leaves no other option for people such those who elected President Zelaya but with a few only choices. It appears also that international pressure somewhat worked; that the OAS and the US did have some effect and even though there is no guarantee that Zelaya would remain alive for a minute if he returned in the Honduras, his "pardon" was a gesture of submission by the state to outside pressure as much as to the congress's insistence to sanity. As the OAS is now being approached by the Uribe regime in Colombia... we may begin to consider the possibiilty of abuse of the very system that helped "end" the Honduras crisis which drives us to the main topic of this blog entry...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Honduras crisis was treated here at the Conflict Monitor as a linear, singular chain of events... as if the rest of the world stop from existing... This is not any different that what happens in conflict analysis or case history-writing. The exclusive granted to the Honduras crisis took the readers attention away from other current affairs that should have also mattered that day or hour as things unfolded in Tegucigalpa. Distant places as far as China and Northern Sudan were just as active and this blog unintentionally created the impression - as most conflict analyses do - that it's the only thing going on.. So from now on the Conflict Monitor will respond to conflict situations in parallel, as they unfold. It will provide more of a commentary to current events than a case focused exclusive analysis. Connections and continuities will be considered but the idea here is that there is an overall, over arching conflict on the planet the ingredients of which are interlinked and interconnected from one region to the next. Conflict Monitor will treat conflicts similar to the snake helix of Hermes, spiraling upwards in wings towards the sun... I hope you will enjoy what the Monitor has to say and participate in the open debate. I hope to provoke that debate vigorously yet respectfully. The idea here is to OPEN UP our minds to new possibilities in understanding conflicts, not to regurgitate the same main stream information from the media or the establishment of politically corectedness that has caused just as much damage in shedding light in the fog of global and regional conflict. So the Conflict Monitor is back and more is on the way. Sri Lanka getting away with murder against the Tamil, the spill of Somalia's violence in Uganda, the ongoing struggle of indigenous peopel in Peru, and the efforts of Uribe to ignite the region into conflict so as to deprive his predecessors of a peaceful approach, all are on the way to the Conflict Monitor!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Peace equals light!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TEP_kfWQDhI/AAAAAAAAACM/uB7D8sLEtKU/s1600/Conflict+Monitor.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 308px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5495516972677336594" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TEP_kfWQDhI/AAAAAAAAACM/uB7D8sLEtKU/s400/Conflict+Monitor.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-6823102628588544736?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/6823102628588544736/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/07/new-beginning.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/6823102628588544736'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/6823102628588544736'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/07/new-beginning.html' title='A NEW BEGINNING...'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TEPsMr7gsNI/AAAAAAAAAB8/_ihadHnOBwU/s72-c/Hermes_World_1.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-8788227997780388354</id><published>2010-06-25T17:14:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2010-06-25T17:17:40.288-07:00</updated><title type='text'>The End?</title><content type='html'>&lt;a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TCVHDJmuc6I/AAAAAAAAABs/ucMWWm4KxDw/s1600/ManuelZelayaOEA300x300%5B1%5D.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 300px; DISPLAY: block; HEIGHT: 300px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5486869840464343970" border="0" alt="" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TCVHDJmuc6I/AAAAAAAAABs/ucMWWm4KxDw/s320/ManuelZelayaOEA300x300%5B1%5D.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;div&gt;From the Voice of America...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;h2&gt;Honduran Congress Grants Zelaya, Coup Plotters Amnesty&lt;/h2&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;p class="articleSummary"&gt;Supreme Court also clears senior military leaders of criminal charges; both moves seen as steps toward national reconciliation before President-elect Lobo takes office Wednesday&lt;/p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/americas/Honduran-Congress-Grants-Zelaya-Coup-Plotters-Amnesty-82783472.html"&gt;http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/americas/Honduran-Congress-Grants-Zelaya-Coup-Plotters-Amnesty-82783472.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-8788227997780388354?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/8788227997780388354/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/06/end.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8788227997780388354'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8788227997780388354'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2010/06/end.html' title='The End?'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/TCVHDJmuc6I/AAAAAAAAABs/ucMWWm4KxDw/s72-c/ManuelZelayaOEA300x300%5B1%5D.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-98821567056172192</id><published>2009-08-11T14:22:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-08-11T15:55:11.143-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS SAGA CONTINUES</title><content type='html'>We left it back at President Zelaya's first visit to the borders... I found those visits to have been a legitimate non-violent protest extravaganza and in vast contrast to the military apparatus mobilized by the junta regime in response. The second visit, the 26th of July awakened even further memories of the dark and dreadful Latin America Cold War era when the body of a youth, supporter of the President, was found ditched on the side walk shot dead with apparent signs of torture and severe beatings on him. There is not a doubt in mind what this machine is made of and how far these people are willing to go; granted, they are making it harder for any resolution that would provide amnesty for their crimes - see previous postings with President Aria's proposal -  to be part of the bargain.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Inadvertently the mass media, including those considered progressive are adopting the tune of the junta regime by inviting junta representatives - most of whom speak with the same tremor and robotic fashion accustomed to totalitarian regime puppets - and by selling out on the semantics, such as calling the President simply "Mr. Zelaya" and the interim buffoons with their self appointed illegitimate labels. In a democracy where the President is elected, the title of Presidency becomes a stamp, the stuff of practical jokes when used by forcefully self appointed tyrants.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the game of power, some insist on pointing at the man with the biggest weapon yet some currencies of power are handed free in a multitude of forms such as the stupendous generosity of a news-hungry journalist blasting titles to those who provided the exclusive to a story or an interview.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In the game of political manipulation semantics are the largest currency of power and whoever controls their direction and shape stands as the puppet master. All "popular" archons, from Hitler and Franco to mildest forms in the post Cold War environment such as George Bush and Vladimir Putin understood and manipulated these strings. Most folks disregard as remotely relevant the relation between the names and phrases they individually use to describe people and situations and the effect of that choice to the course of events themselves. Well here we have it... President Zelaya, the elected President of the Honduras, within a few weeks only, and in absence of contrary popular vote, has been reduced into some "Mr Zelaya" where Micheletti, the abominable Sheriff of Nottingham has grown gradually to "President Michelleti..." And just as every other one of his partners to the crime, he carries the title with an air of an elected head of state.  Kudos to those in the media – including many in the BBC News - who have not sold out to the junta yet and I hope they will keep it so.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;After the grim echo of road ditches strewn with dead mutilated bodies from the streets of Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala, the junta went even further, to block the way of visit from OAS delegates to negotiate a solution to the crisis. They actually decided to hold the People of the Honduras a hostage, isolated from the international community in defiance, and with no consideration of the abysmal economic and societal desolation that those people have been surviving through for decades. Under pressure and after they reduced the role of OAS Secretary-General, Jose Miguel Insulza's into that of a mere observer, they withdrew their objection and the OAS representatives are now expected to visit Tegucigalpa at any moment now.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As for that promised decision-by=vote by the Honduran Congress on whether to accept the terms of President Aria's proposal... we are still waiting as the junta seems disquieted at even the remote possibility of the agreement being ratified and avoids taking the risk to consult the actual representatives of the people.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As the junta regime insists on treating this as a "Zelaya punishment row" instead of the constitutional crisis that it is, it becomes more and more obvious that we are facing the usual gang of thugs who again and again have exploited the Latin American elite's fantasy of eternal order to establish another control dungeon. La Casa de los Espíritus by Isabel Allende makes the following of all this a terribly nauseating experience.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What's next? Well, if the junta has left anything standing of the democratic institutions in the Honduras, and the OAS representatives manage to see the Congress voting freely on President Aria's proposal, there may be some good chances for this constitutional crisis to be resolved smoothly. What I am afraid is that the door to those institutions has become narrower and that sooner than later, those who voted for backing up the coup will be the first to end up in line for political extermination just as back in the dark old days. As the media establishment is increasingly losing sight of perspective, and as the militants increase their control against political descent by the minute, time is very much of the essence here... &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;President Zelaya must immediately return, exercising his right as a Honduran Citizen to return to his country of birth. His association with the Presidency is not threatening to the Honduran democracy as he does not represent or suggest a competing political system - he is not a returning King nor a dictator. An early free election under a short-lived social unity government is at this point paramount. The junta leaders should be punished for the loss of three lives and should be sent off in exile in their pajamas just so they experience the humiliation that they inflicted to President Zelaya… but this is just me fuming and I suppose… they may have to get away with murder until order is restored in the country and a new government will have to decide what to do with them.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-98821567056172192?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/98821567056172192/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/08/honduras-saga-continues.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/98821567056172192'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/98821567056172192'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/08/honduras-saga-continues.html' title='THE HONDURAS SAGA CONTINUES'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-8491988122708729341</id><published>2009-07-24T13:38:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-24T13:57:51.091-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS CRISIS... HEATED UP OR RESOLVED?</title><content type='html'>THE CONFLICT MONITOR: So the coup has declined the offer but they will present it to the Honduran Congress. Even though the same Congress has backed up the coup itself... I am confident they will give it a chance. Or we might be in for a civil war in the Honduras and a huge reversal in democratic institutions in the subcontinent.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Given the current  emerging geo-politico-economic trends - increase of Chinese influence, decline of US hegemony, the rise of drug crime to a full scale war, we may be facing one of those historical portals... of a whole new course of history for the Americas.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What if Latin American elites find their way back to militarism and backed by foreign non-US money pursue their rise to power the Cold-War style? Will the US respond by supporting anti-junta insurgencies? And how will the drug variable play into all of this? I think the Honduran crisis may be far larger an issue than it may seem to most analysts.. and the media... and the public opinion.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I will bet on the Congress backing up the proposal. Anything else may have grave consequences in the region. President Zelaya's trip back to the Honduras, this time by land, should me timed well with the Honduran Congressional response.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Given the amnesty, early elections, national unity government, etc, etc proposed by President Arias... a rejection of such proposal by the Congress would be pure madness... the kind we see in killing sprees in schools and supermarkets in the west... by power-intoxicated men with guns.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-8491988122708729341?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/8491988122708729341/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-crisis-heated-up-or-resolved.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8491988122708729341'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/8491988122708729341'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-crisis-heated-up-or-resolved.html' title='THE HONDURAS CRISIS... HEATED UP OR RESOLVED?'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-4790304690765002528</id><published>2009-07-24T13:19:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-24T13:58:24.559-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS MIDDLE GROUND... FOUND... MISSED?</title><content type='html'>So... after about a week's mediation... here is the proposed agreemend for the restoration of constitutional order in the Honduras. The following is from:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;BBC NEWS Friday, 24 July 2009 09:47 UK&lt;br /&gt;"Honduras leader starts return bid"&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8165496.stm"&gt;http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8165496.stm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 258px; HEIGHT: 121px" border="0" hspace="0" alt="Opponents of Mr Zelaya march in Tegucigalpa, 22 July, 2009 " src="http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46101000/jpg/_46101341_007690192-1.jpg" width="226" height="170" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Mr Arias produced a detailed plan to facilitate Mr Zelaya's return, which include proposals for:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Mr Zelaya to return to the presidency on Friday and serve out his term which ends in January 2010:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;1. a government of national reconciliation to be formed by 27 July&lt;br /&gt;2. an amnesty to be granted covering political crimes committed during this crisis&lt;br /&gt;3. a truth commission to be set up to investigate events in the run-up to Mr Zelaya's removal&lt;br /&gt;4. presidential elections to be held a month early, on 28 October.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: The proposal provides the middle ground and beyond... in fact, considering the junta and the murders committed an amnesty and early elections might have gone too far... yet President Zelaya agreed to it and the coup regime declined it!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The proposal has to pass the Honduran Congress which backed the coup from the first place. Just in case... President Arias's next move was an effort to balance even further the power dynamics towards President Zelaya to remind the coup regime their deficient of their legitimacy. So he proposed in case of failure to drive the issue to a new mediation process (I would even push for arbitration...) by the OAS on the matter... Let us see what's next....&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-4790304690765002528?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/4790304690765002528/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-center-ground-found-missed.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/4790304690765002528'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/4790304690765002528'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-center-ground-found-missed.html' title='THE HONDURAS MIDDLE GROUND... FOUND... MISSED?'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-3940543190104942997</id><published>2009-07-21T05:29:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-21T05:34:58.732-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS POWER SCALE</title><content type='html'>&lt;p&gt;EU suspends $90m aid to Honduras Monday, 20 July 2009 18:42 UK BBC NEWS&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img border="0" hspace="0" alt="Benita Ferrero-Waldner" src="http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/46091000/jpg/_46091130_-1.jpg" width="226" height="170" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The European Union has suspended more than $90m (63m euros; £54m) in aid to Honduras in the wake of a coup there.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8159986.stm"&gt;http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8159986.stm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: The EU adds more pressure to the coup leaders. The balance of power is leaning towards President Zelaya further. Is that enough to bring folks who have used military force against politics and the rule of law back to the negotiations table?&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-3940543190104942997?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/3940543190104942997/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-power-scale.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3940543190104942997'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3940543190104942997'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-power-scale.html' title='THE HONDURAS POWER SCALE'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-984154138434906830</id><published>2009-07-21T05:21:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-21T05:36:45.156-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS MEDIATION STALLMATE</title><content type='html'>Honduras crisis: Critics from both sides slam US&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 225px; HEIGHT: 158px" title="" border="0" alt="(Photograph)" src="http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0720/csmimg/OTECMOVES_P1.jpg" width="246" height="158" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Chief mediator Oscar Arias asked for a 72-hour extension and warned of civil war after talks broke down Sunday.&lt;br /&gt;By Sara Miller Llana Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor&lt;br /&gt;from the July 20, 2009 edition&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0720/p06s03-woam.html"&gt;http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0720/p06s03-woam.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Negotiations stalled&lt;br /&gt;Talks with Mr. Arias broke down Sunday over a key stipulation: that Zelaya be returned to power until his term ends in January.&lt;br /&gt;The seven-point proposal, presented to both sides over the weekend, would have formed a national unity government including representatives from all political parties. Elections, scheduled for November, would have been moved up by a month. Zelaya would also have to affirm his intentions not to alter the Constitution – the trigger of his ouster, after the nation's institutions and many others believed he was trying to scrap term limits for presidents.&lt;br /&gt;But Honduras's interim government, led by Roberto Micheletti, called the plan "unacceptable."&lt;br /&gt;"It was not possible to reach a satisfactory agreement. The Zelaya delegation fully accepted my proposal, but not that of Don Roberto Micheletti," Arias said on Sunday.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: It appears that the coup in the Honduras has adopted the "who is more criminal" attitude which in constitutional and moral grounds is a debate set for a failure. An extra push is needed for balancing further the power towards president Zelaya. It becomes evident that this is an isolationist coup, one that may drive the Honduras to an oblivion diplomatically for decades to come.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-984154138434906830?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/984154138434906830/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-mediation-stallmate.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/984154138434906830'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/984154138434906830'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-mediation-stallmate.html' title='THE HONDURAS MEDIATION STALLMATE'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-5120555182905104938</id><published>2009-07-15T20:37:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-15T20:43:18.961-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS MEDIATION CASE</title><content type='html'>&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=101660059460&amp;amp;h=RqZui&amp;amp;u=3n4ma&amp;amp;ref=nf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS  Americas  Honduran leader 'could step down'&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=8b9f5f9f1e3cada3217b44ac053f99c7&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46066000%2Fjpg%2F_46066010_007654814-1.jpg&amp;amp;w=130&amp;amp;h=200" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thursday, 16 July 2009 02:26 UK&lt;br /&gt;Interim Honduran leader, Roberto Micheletti, says he is willing to step down, but only if ousted President, Manuel Zelaya, does not return.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: President Arias' process seems to be working... the parties still talk and there are small steps ahead from the stalmate. Parties are still "negotiating" through the mediator which is not effective but it appears President Arias holds the course.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-5120555182905104938?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/5120555182905104938/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-mediation-case.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/5120555182905104938'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/5120555182905104938'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-mediation-case.html' title='THE HONDURAS MEDIATION CASE'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-2199972989867477532</id><published>2009-07-11T22:43:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-11T22:59:07.946-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS PROGRESS AND PRESS</title><content type='html'>So far the mediation process has not produced an accord... yet the parties have committed to resolving the crisis. I find it &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_0" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;bizarre&lt;/span&gt; how the media have framed these &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_1" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;developments&lt;/span&gt; as a failure... Yes the deadline is crossed and that puts more pressure to the new &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_2" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;administration&lt;/span&gt; in the Honduras but this is not a failure compared with the overall progress... I wonder how often this is the case...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Why do the media chose &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_3" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;pessimism&lt;/span&gt; instead of optimism during a peace process at least in this case? What are the &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_4" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;consequences&lt;/span&gt; to the conflict? More intense &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_5" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;mobilization&lt;/span&gt;? Increase of &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_6" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;consideration&lt;/span&gt; to alternative to peaceful methods and processes? Prolonging the &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_7" class="blsp-spelling-error"&gt;status&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_8" class="blsp-spelling-error"&gt;quo&lt;/span&gt;? What &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_9" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;perceptional&lt;/span&gt;, attitudinal, and behavioral responses might such media tendency - if &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_10" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;consistent&lt;/span&gt; and persistent - do to the conflict and the conflict &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_11" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;transformation&lt;/span&gt; process?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For the time being very little is known on the actual content of the mediation talks... and the parties are still talking. As - again - this is a &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_12" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;constitutional&lt;/span&gt; crisis to be resolved among &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_13" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;constitutional&lt;/span&gt; lawyers, such negative press might only prolong the &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_14" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;consequences&lt;/span&gt; of the coup itself... that ignition of an &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_15" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;intractable&lt;/span&gt; situation out of a routine political &lt;span id="SPELLING_ERROR_16" class="blsp-spelling-corrected"&gt;disagreement&lt;/span&gt;. The question being... who would really want such a thing...?!&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-2199972989867477532?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/2199972989867477532/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-progress-and-press.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2199972989867477532'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/2199972989867477532'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-progress-and-press.html' title='THE HONDURAS PROGRESS AND PRESS'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-3581099523232761099</id><published>2009-07-09T23:16:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-09T23:46:39.638-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE HONDURAS CONFLIT CONT</title><content type='html'>&lt;div&gt;&lt;a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8141617.stm"&gt;BBC NEWS: Honduran rivals at mediated talks &lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Friday, 10 July 2009 01:45 UK &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/SlbikmS0-_I/AAAAAAAAABM/dkdf8Y5w9P8/s1600-h/_46036518_007626473-1%5B1%5D.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 226px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 170px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5356717925186468850" border="0" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/SlbikmS0-_I/AAAAAAAAABM/dkdf8Y5w9P8/s320/_46036518_007626473-1%5B1%5D.jpg" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;Mr Zelaya is hoping the mediation will see him return to office Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and interim leader Roberto Micheletti have held mediated talks in Costa Rica on the political crisis in Honduras. The men had separate talks with Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, who is mediating, but did not meet each other.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: After a tense 24 hours of the two parties declaring their bottom line and positioning themselves and their allies and respective constituencies back at home against each other the talks begun today and remained at the level of separate talks. More of a shuttle diplomacy (even though President Arias was stationary) the parties "interacted" with each other indirectly. Their rhetorics have soften and we see teams shaping up which will focus most likely on the constitutionality and legality of the latest actions, both from President Zelaya before the coup and the coup leaders and current authorities. President Arias gradually separates the people from the problem and as long as the respective talking teams are considered by the parties to carry full representational authority, the talks remain on a positive track.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Should the parties have faced each other?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Well... both depend their strength on the basis of illegitimacy, if fact of criminality, of the other. A person-to-person meeting might disrupt the existent balance of power (the net power not of each party only) in ways that might produce side-effects such as confusion among and between allies and constituencies and even premature and therefore unreliable positive results. The continuation of talks, but only between teams of representatives, may indicate that the parties are ready to trust the development towards a solution on legal and constitutional grounds. This may weaken the capacity of the mediator to hope for creative solutions, such as compromise beyond the powers of  law, unless the groups open the way to more direct talks. The absence of person-to-person talks has limited the process from one of Dialogue to one of shuttle diplomacy and distant mediation. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt;US Secretary of State Clinton and President Arias indicated that they hoped for a dialogue between the parties but instead we have mediation. The details of this change in strategy may become known soon. &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-3581099523232761099?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/3581099523232761099/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-conflit-cont.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3581099523232761099'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/3581099523232761099'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-conflit-cont.html' title='THE HONDURAS CONFLIT CONT'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><media:thumbnail xmlns:media='http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/' url='http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AcmIE6SeCjI/SlbikmS0-_I/AAAAAAAAABM/dkdf8Y5w9P8/s72-c/_46036518_007626473-1%5B1%5D.jpg' height='72' width='72'/><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-140029663833722865</id><published>2009-07-07T23:52:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-10T15:41:15.186-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE CONFLICT IN THE HONDURAS CONT.</title><content type='html'>THE CONFLICT MONITOR: what did we say earlier about the President of Costa Rica as the person to mediate the situation...? Good job Hillary!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=6ad5fbdd15d17543ac893e4afcc56207&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46024000%2Fjpg%2F_46024698_007576284-1.jpg" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=100347317950&amp;amp;h=NzZrz&amp;amp;u=Y9OnR&amp;amp;ref=nf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Honduras rivals back peace moves&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the announcement in Washington after meeting ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: Here is what we have in this conflict so far:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The President of the Honduras, used (for some abusing) his mandate from the last elections to overpower the senate and congress in running a referendum on extending his right to run for one more election,&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The local elites and the army arrested President Zelaya and, in his night robe, sent him into exile. At the same time, the arrested and froze all media in favor of the President and promoted the (generally now accepted) impression that he was by far “very unpopular.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;At the wake of a possible return to the dark days of the Cold War coup-routine era in Latin America, the OAS and the US together with the UN reacted strongly in restoring President Zelaya's legitimacy by ordering the rulers of the coup to allow him to return. This was a good idea in that the institution of the President who represents the will of the people (him being unpopular or not) was now restored in the face of the global community.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On the other hand, it increased the domestic leverage of the coup folks in the Honduras by creating a counter asymmetry... the world against Honduras... and by setting themselves to assume the role of defenders against "foreign powers."&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As if that wasn't enough the General Secretary of the OAS, by visiting Tegucigalpa sent, and even though he didn't meet with the coupc leaders, he still delivevred a mixed message – combining a severe condemnation with his visit in the Capitol. At this point, had there been another more neutral mediator the conflict might have been put at a more tractable path. However, that visit created the impression among the coup leaders that they might after all get away with it.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Immediately after the failure of the General Secretary to produce results, President Zelaya with the backing of the international community, and escorted by a group of high level dignitaries, flew towards Tegucigalpa international airport expecting that seas of people would clear the runway for his plane to land against a weak and ready to defect army. Of course this did not work, as expected… The coup strengthened their grip of control over the army and fired against the demonstrators killing at least two while the Learjet with President Zelaya aboard was circling over the runway like a hustler looking for a his golden chance.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It never came. President Zelaya flew back to Washington DC sharing his embarrassment with the international community.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;At this point keep in mind... he PERSONALLY remains even today the ONLY LEGITIMATE HONDURAN CITIZEN as the state of Honduras is a subject to collective punishment as a means to turn the tide over and against the coup; a coup which now has established that the army is on their side and that they can stand as Hondurans against any hostile international environment!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So here we are experiencing the worse nightmare of a conflict resolution analyst, two parties perceiving themselves to be able to win over the other. So here we have the pick of a crisis and at this moment only mediation can assist in communicating to the parties the erroneous of their perception that they can win as in fact, considering that the Honduras is the third poorest country in the Americas, its expulsion and economic sanctions against it would only mean a disaster for all Hondurans including political bosses, elected and otherwise.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The outcome of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias' mediation is not guaranteed and a lot depends on how much damage has already been done. He has some rats and some aces in his pocket including the following:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On the positive side:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If communicated clearly both parties will realize that they are about to fall victims of a problem which will take them and the country back to the stone ages (see Haiti)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The crisis in the Honduras is a constitutional crisis one which can be handled through an effective problem-solving debate between constitutional lawyers under arbitration if necessary. Even though the crisis became contaminated towards the intractable due to the use of force, the abuse of institutions of power, the death of two Honduran citizens and severe ideological differences, the fact remains that something went wrong in how the constitution was communicated and applied by the parties. That leaves space for so-called principled negotiations, with the constitution itself the objective reference to resolving this smoothly.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;President Zelaya's term ends this November... which means that expedited elections would not be such an extreme measure at the moment. A short term emergency unity government would do in running those elections smoothly.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Challenges include the following:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The return of President Zelaya as a President and/or as Honduran citizen - is the only way for Honduras to restore itself as a legitimate member of the international community. And it is up to President Zelaya how far he may concede in distancing himself from the title to make it possible to return at the moment but the Presidency and the person have to return to the Honduras. This of course contradicts the competing narrative that he is a criminal in exile and that his return would only mean the de-legitimization and criminalization of those running the coup. To the degree to which those forces enacted the will of the congress and the senate - plus the army, they coup leaders perceive themselves as instruments of the will of the people. And the return of President Zelaya will only mean their own criminalization and exile either they actually leave the country physically or not.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There are also issues of criminal conduct by the army and even murders committed that have to be served by justice and/or mitigated through processes which will promote justice and reconciliation at the same time.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;These two issues, put in perspective are not as difficult to address especially since there hasn’t been a civil war put into progress yet. President Arias has to put together in a room constitutional lawyers, representatives of the office of the President in exile and of the coup leaders, and good conflict resolution practitioners to produce a comprehensive emergency resolution which would see to the return of the President (as an institution and/or as a citizen) the formation of an emergency unity government to prepare the country for expedited elections, and the development of one or more committees which will address the issues of recovery and reconciliation as well as the healing of the societal, structural, economic, and personal trauma caused due to this ordeal both in the Honduras and internationally.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Such a task as difficult as it may appear put in perspective and compared to processes addressing say the Palestinian - Israeli conflict, Cyprus, or the Northern Ireland conflict are textboook negotiations and they should go smooth and easy.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-140029663833722865?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/140029663833722865/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/conflict-in-honduras-cont.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/140029663833722865'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/140029663833722865'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/conflict-in-honduras-cont.html' title='THE CONFLICT IN THE HONDURAS CONT.'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-70888300078058975</id><published>2009-07-07T10:47:00.000-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-07T12:08:51.027-07:00</updated><title type='text'>The Honduras Crisis</title><content type='html'>This is a list of postings on the Honduras Crisis which inspired this blog to begin with. This is a summary of previous postings from Facebook up tp Tuesday, July 07, 2009. From now on the updates will continue as new entries.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=100044927434&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s100044927434"&gt;Tue at 02:08pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;Since President Zelaya was so "unpopular" in the Honduras, why the house and senate did not allow him to move forward with his referendum which - considering his downfall - would have ended in his political defeat and humiliation? It appears now that the coup literally pulled the plug off every pro-Zelaya media! They actually cut off electricity and many stations are still close! Is this a "constructed" unpopularity?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 171px; HEIGHT: 137px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=78c62612ef370b0d75c8ad3933b13f1a&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FNA-AY746_HONDUR_G_20090702200829.jpg" width="176" height="211" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=227034765202&amp;amp;h=sKbx-&amp;amp;u=MJX0h&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;Honduras Takes Control of Some Media - WSJ.com&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: online.wsj.com&lt;br /&gt;Honduras's provisional government is being criticized for taking control of a number of media outlets since the coup.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=100044927434&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s100044927434"&gt;Tue at 02:00pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;Mediation time... and Clinton should do well as we have several IPCR graduates working under her wing! Had it happened earlier we might have been spared from the Tegucigalpa airport circus and two people would have still been alive... A comprehensive plan with an emergency government, the return of the President as a citizen and immediate elections should work. A thorough TRC afterwards might also help.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=9aa57d0852436bd830c725e1fdaa1165&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46016000%2Fjpg%2F_46016019_-1.jpg" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=104482036115&amp;amp;h=Bv5BB&amp;amp;u=K82su&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Clinton to meet ousted Honduran&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;Ousted Honduran leader Manuel Zelaya is expected to arrive in Washington later on Tuesday for a meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=100044927434&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s100044927434"&gt;Sun at 11:32pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt; And so it goes...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 179px; HEIGHT: 136px" src="http://www.pentictontoday.com/pictures/620200985136A.jpg" width="146" height="157" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=100044927434&amp;amp;h=z2LhG&amp;amp;u=4ADn9&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Deadly clash at Honduran airport&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;At least one person has been killed as Honduran troops attempted to disperse supporters of ousted President Manuel Zelaya at Tegucigalpa airport.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=97588142156&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s97588142156"&gt;Sun at 6:35pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt;Here we go...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 258px; HEIGHT: 151px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=845fea36b41d0827f2793ccb3b326d64&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46015000%2Fjpg%2F_46015228_007604578-1.jpg" width="184" height="228" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=208530490021&amp;amp;h=MGW6z&amp;amp;u=EVuzq&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=97588142156&amp;amp;h=i8PCY&amp;amp;u=IF_Xr&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt; NEWS Americas Ousted leader heads for Honduras&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;The interim government says it will not allow Mr Zelaya's plane to land. There are growing fears of violence in the Central American nation.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=208530490021&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s208530490021"&gt;Sun at 12:11pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;Beyond critical...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=4fb85f0968da62bb719c1f836773fdc2&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46013000%2Fjpg%2F_46013274_airport_afp226b.jpg" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=208530490021&amp;amp;h=MGW6z&amp;amp;u=EVuzq&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Honduras tense over Zelaya return&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;But government officials say they will not allow any plane carrying Mr Zelaya to land. The capital's archbishop has warned of a possible "bloodbath".&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=100493253670&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s100493253670"&gt;Sat at 5:04pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt; &lt;/a&gt;One spark away from civil war... &lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=d1479191e5b1f02544da399b0088158a&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46012000%2Fjpg%2F_46012573_007599075-2.jpg" width="289" height="182" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=100493253670&amp;amp;h=ag1Ru&amp;amp;u=XljTv&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Zelaya vows to return to Honduras&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;Mr Zelaya, who was forced out by the military on Sunday, criticised the leaders of the interim government and described them as traitors.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=101557993366&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s101557993366"&gt;July 3 at 3:06pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt; Yes mediation time... but Miguel Insulza after such strong OAS resolution can only send mixed messages to the coup folks... The Costa Rican President would have been a better choice... Such a textbook conflict! No dead so far, President Zelaya's term ends in November anyway, the issue can be resolved strictly on constitutional basis yet with small mistakes like this one it may turn ugly as the clock is running...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=c6c50c1177bbadb1ce298dab55e1db1f&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F46005000%2Fjpg%2F_46005147_007582119-1.jpg" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=101557993366&amp;amp;h=kXmEl&amp;amp;u=5JlXI&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Envoy to take demand to Honduras&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;A top Latin American diplomat due to visit Honduras says he will demand the restoration of the country's deposed President, Manuel Zelaya.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=49664044958&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s49664044958"&gt;July 1 at 10:30pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt; So now... the challenge is to reconcile two emerging, opposing rights... Conflict Resolution 101... and a good reality test for the UN, US, and the OAS. Are they ready to walk the talk about all their latest "diplomacy and soft power jargon" or are they using them as clichés? Should be hiring more AU/IPCR Graduates or what??? Nice to see President Zelaya off his pijamas again by the way! :)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=82e26c24cd7f3aaeadc5ad763e21ee63&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45999000%2Fjpg%2F_45999482_007585120-1.jpg" width="201" height="141" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=49664044958&amp;amp;h=6-Hco&amp;amp;u=FRnse&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Honduras leaders reject deadline&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;The newly installed government in Honduras has rejected international calls to reinstate deposed President Manuel Zelaya.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=97716828094&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s97716828094"&gt;July 1 at 10:23am&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt; !!!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 162px; HEIGHT: 111px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=f9fbd8e8b6b6e2e9e7e6e864707cb0ec&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45993000%2Fjpg%2F_45993860_un_ap226b.jpg" width="134" height="106" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=97716828094&amp;amp;h=NBSga&amp;amp;u=E2vCV&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Deadline for Honduras over leader&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;The Organization of American States (OAS) has given the current leaders of Honduras three days to restore exiled President Manuel Zelaya to power.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=100384672401&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s100384672401"&gt;June 30 at 1:25am&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;:&lt;/a&gt; Old but... on the "good coup" discussion... isn't this EXACTLY what President Zelaya has been trying to put together in the Honduras before he was kicked out of the country in his pijamas as if he was insane? Should President Uribe start packing his luggage also?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=f5e79a626f9461a1e9f8c3d570c61402&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45798000%2Fjpg%2F_45798826_007346104-1.jpg" width="155" height="117" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=100384672401&amp;amp;h=WnOoI&amp;amp;u=0d0VS&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Colombia Senate backs Uribe vote&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;Colombia's Senate has overwhelmingly backed a referendum on allowing President Alvaro Uribe to stand for an unprecedented third term in 2010.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=384237810000&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s384237810000"&gt;June 29 at 11:12pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;: &lt;/a&gt;Bravo Obama!!! Like they say in N.I. so often... "Down with that sort of thing...!!!" :)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 235px; HEIGHT: 160px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=9158f435e5f9282885b590e00cb03ed3&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45989000%2Fjpg%2F_45989107_jex_397080_de29-1.jpg" width="290" height="205" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=384237810000&amp;amp;h=FjvIj&amp;amp;u=gPzXj&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Ousted Honduran leader to return&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;The ousted president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, has said he will return home later this week, after being forced into exile on Sunday.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=96120229519&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s96120229519"&gt;June 29 at 2:56am&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;: &lt;/a&gt;chop-chop !!!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=56803a7dfd2903754c36e485f1990984&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45983000%2Fjpg%2F_45983829_micheletti_afp226b.jpg" width="181" height="143" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=94850134839&amp;amp;h=ywIDi&amp;amp;u=CsZlA&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=96120229519&amp;amp;h=RSlOt&amp;amp;u=VW7xe&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;NEWS Americas New Honduran leader sets curfew&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;Mr Zelaya, who had been in power since 2006, wanted to hold a referendum that could have led to an extension of his non-renewable four-year term.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=94850134839&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s94850134839"&gt;June 28 at 3:57pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/christos.kyrou?ref=mf"&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR&lt;/a&gt;: Same old... same old...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 160px; HEIGHT: 115px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=b3c6fe6b7ddb88a32acf025989906594&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45983000%2Fjpg%2F_45983585_soldiers_ap_bod.jpg" width="113" height="77" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=96152148015&amp;amp;h=N_9-G&amp;amp;u=kPlrd&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas &lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=94850134839&amp;amp;h=ywIDi&amp;amp;u=CsZlA&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;Honduran president ousted&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;Troops in Honduras stormed the residence of President Manuel Zelaya and ousted him, after a power struggle over his plans for a referendum on changing the constitution so he could run for a second term.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/posted.php?id=716580499&amp;amp;share_id=96152148015&amp;amp;comments=1&amp;amp;ref=mf#s96152148015"&gt;June 28 at 2:41pm&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;THE CONFLICT MONITOR: A military coup in the Honduras....&lt;br /&gt;&lt;img style="WIDTH: 201px; HEIGHT: 120px" class="UIMediaItem_UnknownWidth" alt="" src="http://external.ak.fbcdn.net/safe_image.php?d=c2b954b1859402ab89f2cb16051e158b&amp;amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnewsimg.bbc.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F45982000%2Fjpg%2F_45982993_-33.jpg" width="289" height="197" /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=96152148015&amp;amp;h=N_9-G&amp;amp;u=kPlrd&amp;amp;ref=mf" target="_blank"&gt;BBC NEWS Americas Troops detain Honduran president&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: news.bbc.co.uk&lt;br /&gt;The referendum, due on Sunday, had been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court and was also opposed by Congress and members of Mr Zelaya's own party&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-70888300078058975?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/70888300078058975/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-crisis.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/70888300078058975'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/70888300078058975'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/honduras-crisis.html' title='The Honduras Crisis'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry><entry><id>tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8255463322293233778.post-7030051851771851427</id><published>2009-07-07T10:21:00.001-07:00</published><updated>2009-07-07T10:26:47.489-07:00</updated><title type='text'>THE CONFLICT MONITOR IS HERE</title><content type='html'>This is a place where I follow conflicts up close from the beginning to the end. At each level I am suggesting a course of action that might help resolve or de-escalate the conflict. Keep in mind that this is not a blogg about EVERY conflict. I pick those from regions and circumstances that I am more familiar with, from the degree to which I can trace developments or not and from the linearity of events that can help me understand conflict phenomena better. So I apologize in advance for not covering conflicts that may be very important to the reader. I am building a structure that can allow folks to do the same on their own so that we can together cover more than less and also engage to some fruitful discussions.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Welcome to The Conflict Monitor Blogg!&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;With Gratitude&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The Conflict Monitor&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/8255463322293233778-7030051851771851427?l=theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com' alt='' /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</content><link rel='replies' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/feeds/7030051851771851427/comments/default' title='Post Comments'/><link rel='replies' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/conflict-monitor-is-here.html#comment-form' title='0 Comments'/><link rel='edit' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/7030051851771851427'/><link rel='self' type='application/atom+xml' href='http://www.blogger.com/feeds/8255463322293233778/posts/default/7030051851771851427'/><link rel='alternate' type='text/html' href='http://theconflictmonitor.blogspot.com/2009/07/conflict-monitor-is-here.html' title='THE CONFLICT MONITOR IS HERE'/><author><name>The Conflict Monitor</name><uri>http://www.blogger.com/profile/06629172888581516052</uri><email>noreply@blogger.com</email><gd:image rel='http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail' width='16' height='16' src='http://img2.blogblog.com/img/b16-rounded.gif'/></author><thr:total>0</thr:total></entry></feed>
