FARC-EP declares that the extraction business in Colombia must be Resolved: What does this mean for the future of the negotiations?
Iván Márquez, the FARC-EP chief negotiator caused a great worry to many of those following the negotiations between the rebel group and the government of Colombia by stating that the issue of accountability and policy of extraction in Colombia has to be resolved immediately. For some it was an indicator that the parties are not settled yet with the existent agenda and that this may be an omen that the negotiations will fail.Yet things might not be as gloomy as they seem...
One can interpret this development in three different ways:
First that the FARC-EP is stalling by adding to the agenda issues that will increase the heat and will make any agreement more difficult. The alarmists who believe that this whole negotiations series is only a trick by the FARC-EP to regroup and prepare for a counterattack in the ground are having a field trip already. Yet there is no cease-fire! Instead, operations continue unobstructed and the latest news was that five Colombian soldiers died in clashes with the FARC-EP yesterday during an offensive. So the theory that the FARC-EP might be buying time doesn't make much sense for the is no additional breathing space granted to them during negotiations to begin with.
That brings in another possible reason, that the very continuation of the operations and this particular offensive might have upset the FARC-EP delegation which proceeded with a "demonstration" of power by declaring defiance towards the already agreed upon agenda. In other words, if they felt that the government embarks in a new major offensive right now, it might be a good idea to consider that it takes the FARC-EP to come to an agreement and that they have the power to make things harder for Santos if they choose to. The offensive itself might have been a response of the government in previous statements or actions of the FARC-EP in a spiraling direction. The absence of a cease-fire makes it very tempting to the parties to use their muscle on the ground in order to gain points on the negotiations table, a potentially disastrous course of action by both.
My most likely interpretation of the event is more complex: Iván Márquez' statements to Al Jazeera are indicative to the cultural gap between the two negotiating parties. One is urban, legalistic, and experienced with main-stream negotiation processes, where the FARC-EP is rural, normative instead of legalistic, and more used and experienced in bargaining instead of the modern legalistic protocol" Given that the issue of extractions could as well be included in one or even two of the existing agenda items, this interpretation of events is the most likely. It also indicates how important negotiating capacity is for groups such as the FARC-EP. I am confident that with the intervention of those in the group and those from the good offices of the Cuban government, as well as through a constructive interaction with even the government party itself, this trend will stop and that they will continue unobstructed.
For as long as the two parties remain on the table I believe that the people of Colombia have every reason to remain optimistic. On the other hand what's genuinely alarming is a possible indication of an escalation of offensive operations by government troops within FARC-EP controlled territory. Escalating violence at this point is a very risky business by the Santos government as the equation is far more complicated than just pushing the FARC-EP to sign an agreement by hurting them militarily. A cornered FARC-EP might produce a very unpredictable trajectory of escalation with unexpected results, such as civilian deaths, which might encourage spoilers and groups opposing any plans for peace to provoke even further the situation by attacking urban centers only to destabilize and end the negotiations.
As of now, it appears that the two parties are back on the table and that the five young people lost will be added to the trail of blood which hopefully will drive to the end of this decade old war instead of the opposite direction.
