Sunday, October 21, 2012

FARC-EP declares that the extraction business in Colombia must be Resolved: What does this mean for the future of the negotiations?



Iván Márquez, the FARC-EP chief negotiator caused a great worry to many of those following the negotiations between the rebel group and the government of Colombia by stating that the issue of accountability and policy of extraction in Colombia has to be resolved immediately. For some it was an indicator that the parties are not settled yet with the existent agenda and that this may be an omen that the negotiations will fail.Yet things might not be as gloomy as they seem...

One can interpret this development in three different ways:

First that the FARC-EP is stalling by adding to the agenda issues that will increase the heat and will make any agreement more difficult. The alarmists who believe that this whole negotiations series is only a trick by the FARC-EP to regroup and prepare for a counterattack in the ground are having a field trip already. Yet there is no cease-fire! Instead, operations continue unobstructed and the latest news was that five Colombian soldiers died in clashes with the FARC-EP yesterday during an offensive. So the theory that the FARC-EP might be buying time doesn't make much sense for the is no additional breathing space granted to them during negotiations to begin with.

That brings in another possible reason, that the very continuation of the operations and this particular offensive might have upset the FARC-EP delegation which proceeded with a "demonstration" of power by declaring defiance towards the already agreed upon agenda. In other words, if they felt that the government embarks in a new major offensive right now, it might be a good idea to consider that it takes the FARC-EP to come to an agreement and that they have the power to make things harder for Santos if they choose to. The offensive itself might have been a response of the government in previous statements or actions of the FARC-EP in a spiraling direction. The absence of a cease-fire makes it very tempting to the parties to use their  muscle on the ground in order to gain points on the negotiations table, a potentially disastrous course of action by both.

My most likely interpretation of the event is more complex: Iván Márquez' statements to Al Jazeera are indicative to the cultural gap between the two negotiating parties. One is urban, legalistic, and experienced with main-stream negotiation processes, where the FARC-EP is rural, normative instead of legalistic, and more used and experienced in bargaining instead of the modern legalistic protocol" Given that the issue of extractions could as well be included in one or even two of the existing agenda items, this interpretation of events is the most likely. It also indicates how important negotiating capacity is for groups such as the FARC-EP. I am confident that with the intervention of those in the group and those from the good offices of the Cuban government, as well as through a constructive interaction with even the government party itself, this trend will stop and that they will continue unobstructed.

For as long as the two parties remain on the table I believe that the people of Colombia have every reason to remain optimistic. On the other hand what's genuinely alarming is a possible indication of an escalation of offensive operations by government troops within FARC-EP controlled territory. Escalating violence at this point is a very risky business by the Santos government as the equation is far more complicated than just pushing the FARC-EP to sign an agreement by hurting them militarily. A cornered FARC-EP might produce a very unpredictable trajectory of escalation with unexpected results, such as civilian deaths, which might encourage spoilers and groups opposing any plans for peace to provoke even further the situation by attacking urban centers only to destabilize and end the negotiations.

As of now, it appears that the two parties are back on the table and that the five young people lost will be added to the trail of blood which hopefully will drive to the end of this decade old war instead of the opposite direction.

Saturday, October 13, 2012


Q&A: Colombia peace talks

Colombia is heading towards a gigantic leap forward in only a few days. The BBC is offering a summary of the situation there for those who might need a speedy catch up:


Philippines and Muslim rebels agree peace deal


BBCNEWS 7 October 2012 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19860907

The Philippine government has reached a framework peace agreement with the the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), President Benigno Aquino says. The deal follows long negotiations with to end a 40-year conflict that has cost more than 120,000 lives.

Monday, December 27, 2010

FROM INDIA...

Assam rebel chief's 'abducted' son is freedBy Subir Bhaumik
27 December 2010
BBC News, Calcutta
By Subir Bhaumik
Paresh Barua
Mr Barua has opposed talks with India An Indian separatist group says the son of its military wing chief, who was kidnapped in Bangladesh, has now been released. Paresh Barua, senior United Liberation Front of Assam (Ulfa) leader, alleged last week that his teenaged son Arindam Barua had been abducted. The kidnappers were putting pressure on him to negotiate with India, he said. From, and more at...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12081940

Friday, December 17, 2010

FROM COLOMBIA...

Colombia army gives Farc rebels early Christmas gift
BBC WORLD NEWS
17 December 2010 at 21:11 ET
Christmas tree in Bogota's central square
The Colombian army says it has installed a giant Christmas tree in Farc rebel territory, to encourage guerrilla fighters to demobilize.... From and more at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12025086

THE CONFLICT MONITOR:
As pathetic and tasteless. and as against the spirit of Christmas at one can be...

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

FROM COLOMBIA...

US court indicts Dutch Farc rebel Tanja Nijmeijer
BBC WORLD NEWS
14 December 2010 Last updated at 19:32 ET
Tanja Nijmeijer
A US court has indicted a Dutch member of the Colombian Farc rebel group on kidnapping charges.
In an interview for Radio Netherlands recorded in August 2010, she said she would fight until victory or death. She also warned the Colombian authorities that if they tried to rescue her she would "meet them with machine guns, mines and mortars". "I am proud to be a guerrilla and to be able to work together with the Colombian people and the other guerrillas, to take power and proclaim the revolution," she told Colombian journalist Jorge Enrique Botero in Spanish during the interview in the jungle. From and more at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11996770

FROM PALESTINE...

Hamas holds massive Gaza rally
Source:
Al Jazeera and agencies

14 Dec 2010 17:33 GMT
Resistance group throws 23rd anniversary rally, as tight Israeli siege makes Gaza's Hamas rulers increasingly unpopular. From and more at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/12/20101214135412759764.html