THE HONDURAS SAGA CONTINUES

We left it back at President Zelaya's first visit to the borders... I found those visits to have been a legitimate non-violent protest extravaganza and in vast contrast to the military apparatus mobilized by the junta regime in response. The second visit, the 26th of July awakened even further memories of the dark and dreadful Latin America Cold War era when the body of a youth, supporter of the President, was found ditched on the side walk shot dead with apparent signs of torture and severe beatings on him. There is not a doubt in mind what this machine is made of and how far these people are willing to go; granted, they are making it harder for any resolution that would provide amnesty for their crimes - see previous postings with President Aria's proposal - to be part of the bargain.

Inadvertently the mass media, including those considered progressive are adopting the tune of the junta regime by inviting junta representatives - most of whom speak with the same tremor and robotic fashion accustomed to totalitarian regime puppets - and by selling out on the semantics, such as calling the President simply "Mr. Zelaya" and the interim buffoons with their self appointed illegitimate labels. In a democracy where the President is elected, the title of Presidency becomes a stamp, the stuff of practical jokes when used by forcefully self appointed tyrants.

In the game of power, some insist on pointing at the man with the biggest weapon yet some currencies of power are handed free in a multitude of forms such as the stupendous generosity of a news-hungry journalist blasting titles to those who provided the exclusive to a story or an interview.

In the game of political manipulation semantics are the largest currency of power and whoever controls their direction and shape stands as the puppet master. All "popular" archons, from Hitler and Franco to mildest forms in the post Cold War environment such as George Bush and Vladimir Putin understood and manipulated these strings. Most folks disregard as remotely relevant the relation between the names and phrases they individually use to describe people and situations and the effect of that choice to the course of events themselves. Well here we have it... President Zelaya, the elected President of the Honduras, within a few weeks only, and in absence of contrary popular vote, has been reduced into some "Mr Zelaya" where Micheletti, the abominable Sheriff of Nottingham has grown gradually to "President Michelleti..." And just as every other one of his partners to the crime, he carries the title with an air of an elected head of state. Kudos to those in the media – including many in the BBC News - who have not sold out to the junta yet and I hope they will keep it so.

After the grim echo of road ditches strewn with dead mutilated bodies from the streets of Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala, the junta went even further, to block the way of visit from OAS delegates to negotiate a solution to the crisis. They actually decided to hold the People of the Honduras a hostage, isolated from the international community in defiance, and with no consideration of the abysmal economic and societal desolation that those people have been surviving through for decades. Under pressure and after they reduced the role of OAS Secretary-General, Jose Miguel Insulza's into that of a mere observer, they withdrew their objection and the OAS representatives are now expected to visit Tegucigalpa at any moment now.

As for that promised decision-by=vote by the Honduran Congress on whether to accept the terms of President Aria's proposal... we are still waiting as the junta seems disquieted at even the remote possibility of the agreement being ratified and avoids taking the risk to consult the actual representatives of the people.

As the junta regime insists on treating this as a "Zelaya punishment row" instead of the constitutional crisis that it is, it becomes more and more obvious that we are facing the usual gang of thugs who again and again have exploited the Latin American elite's fantasy of eternal order to establish another control dungeon. La Casa de los Espíritus by Isabel Allende makes the following of all this a terribly nauseating experience.

What's next? Well, if the junta has left anything standing of the democratic institutions in the Honduras, and the OAS representatives manage to see the Congress voting freely on President Aria's proposal, there may be some good chances for this constitutional crisis to be resolved smoothly. What I am afraid is that the door to those institutions has become narrower and that sooner than later, those who voted for backing up the coup will be the first to end up in line for political extermination just as back in the dark old days. As the media establishment is increasingly losing sight of perspective, and as the militants increase their control against political descent by the minute, time is very much of the essence here...

President Zelaya must immediately return, exercising his right as a Honduran Citizen to return to his country of birth. His association with the Presidency is not threatening to the Honduran democracy as he does not represent or suggest a competing political system - he is not a returning King nor a dictator. An early free election under a short-lived social unity government is at this point paramount. The junta leaders should be punished for the loss of three lives and should be sent off in exile in their pajamas just so they experience the humiliation that they inflicted to President Zelaya… but this is just me fuming and I suppose… they may have to get away with murder until order is restored in the country and a new government will have to decide what to do with them.

THE HONDURAS CRISIS... HEATED UP OR RESOLVED?

THE CONFLICT MONITOR: So the coup has declined the offer but they will present it to the Honduran Congress. Even though the same Congress has backed up the coup itself... I am confident they will give it a chance. Or we might be in for a civil war in the Honduras and a huge reversal in democratic institutions in the subcontinent.

Given the current emerging geo-politico-economic trends - increase of Chinese influence, decline of US hegemony, the rise of drug crime to a full scale war, we may be facing one of those historical portals... of a whole new course of history for the Americas.

What if Latin American elites find their way back to militarism and backed by foreign non-US money pursue their rise to power the Cold-War style? Will the US respond by supporting anti-junta insurgencies? And how will the drug variable play into all of this? I think the Honduran crisis may be far larger an issue than it may seem to most analysts.. and the media... and the public opinion.

I will bet on the Congress backing up the proposal. Anything else may have grave consequences in the region. President Zelaya's trip back to the Honduras, this time by land, should me timed well with the Honduran Congressional response.

Given the amnesty, early elections, national unity government, etc, etc proposed by President Arias... a rejection of such proposal by the Congress would be pure madness... the kind we see in killing sprees in schools and supermarkets in the west... by power-intoxicated men with guns.

THE HONDURAS MIDDLE GROUND... FOUND... MISSED?

So... after about a week's mediation... here is the proposed agreemend for the restoration of constitutional order in the Honduras. The following is from:

BBC NEWS Friday, 24 July 2009 09:47 UK
"Honduras leader starts return bid"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8165496.stm


Mr Arias produced a detailed plan to facilitate Mr Zelaya's return, which include proposals for:

Mr Zelaya to return to the presidency on Friday and serve out his term which ends in January 2010:

1. a government of national reconciliation to be formed by 27 July
2. an amnesty to be granted covering political crimes committed during this crisis
3. a truth commission to be set up to investigate events in the run-up to Mr Zelaya's removal
4. presidential elections to be held a month early, on 28 October.

THE CONFLICT MONITOR: The proposal provides the middle ground and beyond... in fact, considering the junta and the murders committed an amnesty and early elections might have gone too far... yet President Zelaya agreed to it and the coup regime declined it!

The proposal has to pass the Honduran Congress which backed the coup from the first place. Just in case... President Arias's next move was an effort to balance even further the power dynamics towards President Zelaya to remind the coup regime their deficient of their legitimacy. So he proposed in case of failure to drive the issue to a new mediation process (I would even push for arbitration...) by the OAS on the matter... Let us see what's next....

THE HONDURAS POWER SCALE

EU suspends $90m aid to Honduras Monday, 20 July 2009 18:42 UK BBC NEWS

The European Union has suspended more than $90m (63m euros; £54m) in aid to Honduras in the wake of a coup there.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8159986.stm

THE CONFLICT MONITOR: The EU adds more pressure to the coup leaders. The balance of power is leaning towards President Zelaya further. Is that enough to bring folks who have used military force against politics and the rule of law back to the negotiations table?

THE HONDURAS MEDIATION STALLMATE

Honduras crisis: Critics from both sides slam US

Chief mediator Oscar Arias asked for a 72-hour extension and warned of civil war after talks broke down Sunday.
By Sara Miller Llana Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
from the July 20, 2009 edition
http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0720/p06s03-woam.html

Negotiations stalled
Talks with Mr. Arias broke down Sunday over a key stipulation: that Zelaya be returned to power until his term ends in January.
The seven-point proposal, presented to both sides over the weekend, would have formed a national unity government including representatives from all political parties. Elections, scheduled for November, would have been moved up by a month. Zelaya would also have to affirm his intentions not to alter the Constitution – the trigger of his ouster, after the nation's institutions and many others believed he was trying to scrap term limits for presidents.
But Honduras's interim government, led by Roberto Micheletti, called the plan "unacceptable."
"It was not possible to reach a satisfactory agreement. The Zelaya delegation fully accepted my proposal, but not that of Don Roberto Micheletti," Arias said on Sunday.

THE CONFLICT MONITOR: It appears that the coup in the Honduras has adopted the "who is more criminal" attitude which in constitutional and moral grounds is a debate set for a failure. An extra push is needed for balancing further the power towards president Zelaya. It becomes evident that this is an isolationist coup, one that may drive the Honduras to an oblivion diplomatically for decades to come.

THE HONDURAS MEDIATION CASE

BBC NEWS Americas Honduran leader 'could step down'
Source: news.bbc.co.uk

Thursday, 16 July 2009 02:26 UK
Interim Honduran leader, Roberto Micheletti, says he is willing to step down, but only if ousted President, Manuel Zelaya, does not return.

THE CONFLICT MONITOR: President Arias' process seems to be working... the parties still talk and there are small steps ahead from the stalmate. Parties are still "negotiating" through the mediator which is not effective but it appears President Arias holds the course.

THE HONDURAS PROGRESS AND PRESS

So far the mediation process has not produced an accord... yet the parties have committed to resolving the crisis. I find it bizarre how the media have framed these developments as a failure... Yes the deadline is crossed and that puts more pressure to the new administration in the Honduras but this is not a failure compared with the overall progress... I wonder how often this is the case...

Why do the media chose pessimism instead of optimism during a peace process at least in this case? What are the consequences to the conflict? More intense mobilization? Increase of consideration to alternative to peaceful methods and processes? Prolonging the status quo? What perceptional, attitudinal, and behavioral responses might such media tendency - if consistent and persistent - do to the conflict and the conflict transformation process?

For the time being very little is known on the actual content of the mediation talks... and the parties are still talking. As - again - this is a constitutional crisis to be resolved among constitutional lawyers, such negative press might only prolong the consequences of the coup itself... that ignition of an intractable situation out of a routine political disagreement. The question being... who would really want such a thing...?!